The Current State of COVID-19 in San Francisco

Thanks to ABC7 for letting us know that the Mayor of San Francisco and the Director of Public Heath shared a “bleak” outlook for the state of COVID-19 in the city.

As of yesterday, San Francisco had 4,950 confirmed coronovirus cases and 50 deaths. Nearly 1,000 of those cases were diagnosed in the past two weeks.

See the latest COVID-19 Stats at data.sfgov.org

Additionally 49.7% of diagnosed cases are Hispanic/Latino, who make up just 15% of the city’s population.

In May the “reproductive rate” (the average number of people that each person infects) was 0.85. But right now, researchers believe that every infected person spreads it to an average of 1.25 people, a rate that could lead to huge growth.

Current COIVD-19 Stat Trends in SF

According to data.sf.gov.org as of 7/13/20

• COVID-19 hospitalizations on the rise – nearing the April peak, but includes ICU and Acute care transfers from other areas
• Hospital capacity remains good, but available beds is lower every month due primarily to cases other than COVID.  “Surge” beds are 100% available.
• Confirmed cases rising. 7-day rolling average of new cases is 62 compared with previous peak of 49 in April
• No COVID-19 deaths reported in San Francisco since June 18th.
• San Francisco has tested 192,788 people with an average 3% positive rate. In the last five weeks, the positive rate has risen from 1% to 3%.
• 45 of the 50 deaths in San Francisco have had one or more underlying conditions
• Hispanic/Latino make up 49.8% of positive COVID-19 tests. Asians account for 46% of COVID-19 deaths so far

Key Public Health Indicators

According to data.sf.gov.org as of 7/13/20

• Rate of Weekly Change in COVID Positive Hospitalizations – Up 33% – Level 4 – High Alert
• 7-Day Average % Acute Care Beds Available – 27% – Level 1 – Meeting Target
• 7-Day Average % ICU Beds Available – 28% – Level 1 – Meeting Target
• Average new Cases Per Day Per 100k Residents – 7.7 – Level 4 – High Alert
• 7-Day Average Tests Collected per Day – 2,950 – Level 1 – Meeting Target
• % Cases Reached for Contact Tracing – 85% – Level 2 – Low Alert (ideal is over 90%)
• % of Essential PPE categories with at least 30-day supply – 78% – Level 3 – Moderate Alert

In April, the city peaked at 94 hospitalizations. The worst-case scenario would see 6,000 hospitalizations by the end of the year.

Deaths in the city have been steady at 50 (there have been no reported COVID-19 deaths in nearly a month, since June 18th), but the city expects it to rise to 890 without any change in course, up to a worst-case scenario of 3,000 deaths by the end of the year.

Read more at ABC7